Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Out On A Limb 

I think it is more likely than not that the US will be at war with Iran by Election Day. I have no idea what will precipitate hostilities, if in fact war occurs--it might be something that Iran does, that Israel does or that the US does, or perhaps some other actor will be involved. It also might be some unintentional act that is misinterpreted or that prompts a military response under the rules of engagement then in effect for any party.

I don't want this to happen, because among other things I think it could lead to a much larger conflict much as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo precipitated WWI.

On a related note, the news that Israel will not notify the US of any decision by its government to strike Iran suggests that Israel does not trust the US with that information, and that they fear that someone in the Obama Administration will warn Iran of an impending attack. The reason given by Israel--to decrease the likelihood that the U.S. would be held responsible for failing to stop Israel's potential attack--is plausible, but I think it's a smokescreen to allow the US to save face.

I hope I'm wrong, but we shall see.

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