Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Now, I'm no scientist or mathematician, but when random data produce the same conclusion as real-world data when input into a statistical model, it seems to me that maybe, just maybe, the statistical model might have a built-in bias toward producing that result.
I'm not saying that the scientists who developed the statistical climatic models engaged in intellectual fraud. I am saying that anything created by humans, especially a statistical model that purports to reconstruct and/or mimic a system as complex as the earth's climate, quite possibly may contain errors.
At the very least, this development suggests that qualified scientists should conduct a detailed review of the structure and process of the climactic models that produce the "hockey stick" pattern to make sure that the pattern is not an artifact of the models themselves. Until that happens, maybe it would be better to suspend expensive government-funded projects aimed at stopping global warming.
Credit Jeff Goldstein for the pointer.