Monday, September 27, 2004
Declaring Victory = Certain Defeat?
One thing I keep hearing from the anti-war Democrats is that the Iraqi people aren't willing to fight for their own freedom -- they're letting the US Armed Forces do the dirty work for them. So the AWDs say it's a quagmire and we need to get out.
One response I keep waiting for from the interviewers is the observation that the Iraqis are still recovering from 30-odd years of despotism, that they are gunshy about the United States because of our failure to support the revolt against Saddam that we stirred up in 1991, and that they're waiting to see if we're going to stay the course. Many of them must question why they should be willing to die for a cause the greatest power on Earth deems to be lost. In this context, Kerry's talk of disengagement can't be cause for Iraqi optimism.
Most Iraqis are interested in surviving. If the majority of Iraqis get the idea that the United States is going to cut and run they'll start making deals and allying with whomever appears to be the strongest contender for filing the power vacuum after the fall of Saddam. Whoever that might be, it's unlikely to be anyone that the United States would feel comfortable with. There is a real possibility that Iraq could become the Haiti of the Middle East.
The Iraqis are (justifiably, in my opinion) concerned about the possibilty of Kerry winning the US election, because of Kerry's and the other Dems' talk about reprising Vietnam and unilaterally pulling out. If Kerry wins, his defeatist talk will become a self-fulfilling prophecy -- look for the Iraqis to side with the bad guys, because to do otherwise would be suicidal. If Bush wins, they might just take heart and make something of their country.
Long-term, if the United States bails out, it will be disastrous for our foreign policy. If we're going to wave in the political winds, how could Kerry rationally expect to convince other countries to ally themselves with us, only to be left hanging out to dry? Why should proven allies like the UK, Australia, Italy, Japan and Poland risk their own citizens' lives and their national treasure in support of a fickle United States? Most importantly, what nation would be willing to accept assurances of support from a Kerry government that bailed out of Iraq?
Kerry likes to say that the United States has isolated itself from the rest of the world. If he's elected, he'll come to learn the real meaning of isolation.
One response I keep waiting for from the interviewers is the observation that the Iraqis are still recovering from 30-odd years of despotism, that they are gunshy about the United States because of our failure to support the revolt against Saddam that we stirred up in 1991, and that they're waiting to see if we're going to stay the course. Many of them must question why they should be willing to die for a cause the greatest power on Earth deems to be lost. In this context, Kerry's talk of disengagement can't be cause for Iraqi optimism.
Most Iraqis are interested in surviving. If the majority of Iraqis get the idea that the United States is going to cut and run they'll start making deals and allying with whomever appears to be the strongest contender for filing the power vacuum after the fall of Saddam. Whoever that might be, it's unlikely to be anyone that the United States would feel comfortable with. There is a real possibility that Iraq could become the Haiti of the Middle East.
The Iraqis are (justifiably, in my opinion) concerned about the possibilty of Kerry winning the US election, because of Kerry's and the other Dems' talk about reprising Vietnam and unilaterally pulling out. If Kerry wins, his defeatist talk will become a self-fulfilling prophecy -- look for the Iraqis to side with the bad guys, because to do otherwise would be suicidal. If Bush wins, they might just take heart and make something of their country.
Long-term, if the United States bails out, it will be disastrous for our foreign policy. If we're going to wave in the political winds, how could Kerry rationally expect to convince other countries to ally themselves with us, only to be left hanging out to dry? Why should proven allies like the UK, Australia, Italy, Japan and Poland risk their own citizens' lives and their national treasure in support of a fickle United States? Most importantly, what nation would be willing to accept assurances of support from a Kerry government that bailed out of Iraq?
Kerry likes to say that the United States has isolated itself from the rest of the world. If he's elected, he'll come to learn the real meaning of isolation.
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